Northern Trust Open

Northern Trust Open

Jason Day: Makes his seasonal debut on the PGA tour but had a superb final round at the Commercialbank Qatar Masters the weekend before last. He showed some devastating iron play that day, hopefully that can continue and he can improve his record around the Riviera GC.  According to the PGA tour website, he has 12 Top 10's in his last 23 starts worldwide, which shows how much of a big player on the tour the now world number Seven has become. He'll be hoping to quiet his doubters, who question his ability to close out tournaments, by getting a win early on in the season. Currently 35/1 on BETDAQ.

Keegan Bradely: Just the One appearance and One missed cut to his name at Riviera, but interestingly chose to play here over the AT&T which took place last week. He came 15th at the AT&T last year but still chose to take last week off in favour of being fresh for this event. I'm sure his experienced caddie 'Pepsi' had something to do with it. Pepsi made Keegan change his mind on playing at the HP Byron Nelson last year, an event he went on to win. 60/1 on Betfair.

Retief Goosen: T12th here last year and has had a good start to 2012 in South Africa and the Middle East, with a 2nd and 3rd place to his name. Very generous prices available on the exchanges for a man with course experience and good 2012 form. 130/1 on Betfair.

Gary Woodland: Makes his Nissan Open debut this week, but has proven he can play just about anywhere with impressive performances in 2011 (6 top 10's). The talented all-rounder has the skill sets required to go well around a tough course like Riviera (12th in GIR for 2011). He represents value on the exchanges at 100/1 on Betfair.

John Senden. Solid player with impressive stats last year (5th in GIR,) and has continued in the same vein in 2012, Currently lies first in Driving accuracy and GIR, albeit having only played two events. Tends to not make too many errors and if that trend continues he could feature in the shake up come Sunday. 110/1 on Betfair.

Trading Strategy

Jason Day: Back 35/1 x  4 Units(U) + View to lay at 2/1 x 40 U.

Keegan Bradley: Back 60/1 x 1.75 U + View to lay (Depends how things pan out)

Retief Goosen: Back 130/1 x 1 U + View to lay

Gary Woodland: Back 100/1 x 1.5 U + View to lay

John Senden: Back 110/1 x 1 U + view to lay

Total Staked: 9.25 Units

Ryder Cup Preview

I'm back from a small hiatus and no better event to return for than the Ryder Cup. One of the best spectacles in Golf and also a good money making opportunity in my opinion. Unlike a normal event I'll be doing with much shorter odds this week.

Martin Kaymer Top 4 combined points scorer: @ 3/1 : 5 pts : Betfair

Kaymer as we know has the best form of any player in the field, winning the last major and on his last time out, I expect Kaymer to play with Donald and Westwood on day 1. Hopefully, with Donald in the foursomes and Westwood in the fourballs, an absolutely fantastic chance to get 2 points on the board. As long as he wins one point on day 1 ( of which he is widely expected to play both sessions) he'll feature at least once more on Saturday and in the singles. I would have pinned Martin and Mcilroy as the two who could play all 5 games. You could maybe throw G-Mac into the mix too, if him and Mcilroy can hit it off and win both their games on Friday. The likes of Westowood, Harrington and Donald are expected to play once over the opening day.

As for the US, the stricker/Woods combination was frightening in the Presidents Cup just last year. They brought home maximum points for their team, playing together in every doubles match. Based on their practice sessions in Wales, they may well split up for this event. ( Certainly if they lose their first match, and Tiger isn't near his best) So, I see stricker and possibly Furyk, who could his playing partner, as the biggest threats to the top combined points scorer.
I see Kaymer as the best Chance of getting 3-5 points at Celtic Manor, and really like his potential pairings on Friday.

Another Market I like, is the Total halved match points to be 6 points or over. @ 7/5 : 5pts : Betfair

This would have won in 3 of the last 4 ryder cups. Surprisingly, the singles matches don't have a high turnover for draws, so I have a hunch more than anything else that this year will be an exception and we could see 3/4/5 draws on Sunday. I'm expecting, or rather hoping, for 4 draws on Friday and Saturday and another 4 draws on Sunday, or something in that region. The main fear would be if Europe do run away with it, and I need a couple of halves from the last 6-8 groups on Sunday, the bet could be up shit creek without a paddle, so to speak.




Viking Classic: Interest bet:

 I like the look of Allen here, plays mainly on the senior tour these days, wheres he's 4th on the par 5 Birdie or better list. Also a course where the winning marging should be between -12 and -16 so not overly easy, which should suit.

Michael Allen : Top 10 Finnish 2 pts @16/1
Micheal Allen : WIN: 1pts @400/1

Update: The Luke Donald saga

So it was a couple of weeks back now when I backed Luke Donald after round 3 at 1,000/1. As predicted he got off to a flyer,. Watching him on the exchanges he went from 1,000 right into 20/1. He had only reached hole 10! was 2 shots off the lead! bogey free, birdie crazy, I really thought he could have the perfect round, due to his very consistent game and great putting ability. Foolish? or what. I was toying with the idea of trading out for e250 profit if he failed to win and 400 if he did. A true win win situation. But alas, I didn't, and I watched him drop shot after shot and my payday went up in smoke. -11 got into a playoff in the end.

People are doing very risky business laying top golfers at 1,000/1 when they still have half a chance of winning, usually after round 2. The leaders who go off late almost always get brought back to the pack. A combination of  the late tee-time pressure, the greens drying out, and all the waiting around gets to the players. Even last week, Miguel Angel Jimenez nearly botched up at Crane-Sur-Siere with a 5 shot lead, on the final day going into the turn. He just didn't know how too play the 2 par 5s on the back nine. Jason Day the past couple of weeks, done everyhting text book but someone came and grabbed the title from him.

Bank Breakdown  after previuos midweek qualifiers

Bank Breakdown.

Total Staked: 39.6 pts
Total Returned  37 pts
Total loss -2.6 pts.

Euro 2012 weekend qualifiers

Armenia V Ireland: 0-0 Correct Half time score - 3 pts

Ive been eyeing 0-0 HT scores for a while now, Little creativity plus high discipline and effort should mean few chances in the 1st half. Although Ireland have scored some early goals in the past, If Armenia can whether a minor storm, mainly from set-pieces im forecasting, we should see one el'of a boring game.

Deutsche Bank Bet

Jimmy Walker @ 600/1 1pt

Similar thought process as last week ( where I completely blew a great opportunity, when Donald near;y hit the lead from 1,000/1, more on at to come ) The biggest weakness in Walkers game is his driving, and this should be the one course in the playoffs he will get away with it. Longshot, but he's not playing too badly at all.

Low Risk : High Reward

Just had a nibble on a few players @ 1,000/1 ( or so ) at the Barclays to come from way back and sneak it.

While it's a relatively tough course, I feel there's a -9/-10 out there for an early starter. Added to this, late starters struggle to shoot anything under par due to the dry greens. So i've gone a for four players ranging from -4 to -1, -1 is almost definitely too far back, almost.


So Pick one,

1. Luke Donald @ 1,000/1 0.2 Pts
2. Charley Hoffman @ 1,000/1  0.2 pts
3.  Webb Simpson @ 750/1 0.4 pts
4.  Camillio Villegas @ 1,000/1 0.2 pts

Total Staked  1pt

Wyndham Champ breakdown

Jimmy Walker: 1pt E/W LOSE

Missed Cut. Had two double bogeys and a triple bogey,  Still finished -1 and might keep an eye on him, very poor driving accuracy.

Richard S Johnson: 1pt E/W LOSE

 In the hunt all week. Putted great, until Sunday, sigh. Nothing dropped, very unlucky. Missed a couple of puts inside 3 feet as well, which is unacceptable.

Micheal Sim: 1pt win @ 50/1 LOSE (Had E/W not incl. in log.)

Very streaky and Very inconstant performance Thursday through Saturday. Played beautifully on Sunday to make into a tie for 2nd.  Actually never got the odds quoted matched on betfair, so ended up backing him E/W on PP. ( 1pt E/W) I won't add it too the log. Recovered my bet placings for the event anyway.

Micheal Leitzig:. .5 pt e/w LOSE.

Again, he had a good Sunday and was only a few shots back.  3 good picks, unlucky not to get something more.


Bank Breakdown.

Total Staked: 34.6 pts
Total Returned  30 pts
Total loss -4.6 pts.

Half Time: Correct score 0-0 : Theory

One thing I noted during the World Cup was the vast amount of games being 0-0 at HT. Spain notoriously went 3/4 games 0-0 HT. ( and then went on to win 1-0 usually ) So does this translate to the premiership?

Judging on Yesterdays action ( Saturday 21/08/2010) it may well do. But, I'm sure it would be more of a prominent occurrence in other leagues. 3 of the 7 games in the EPL were 0-0 at HT. 3/7 not a bad return, right? Not really. Ok, but, that includes Arsenal against Blackpool and Chelsea v Wigan. Neither Wigan nor Blackpool are particularly effective at holding teams, so if you would rule them out then 3 out of the 5 games were 0-0 at HT.  Everton were only 1-0 up against Wolves too. 

If we look at some of the teams involved we might be able to find a pattern. West Brom were 0-0 with Sunderland at the break. West Brom are a decent side as we know, so maybe when they are at home against non top-6 side opposition (who have the ability to cut them open and control a higher amount of possession ) it could lead to a 0-0 ht results. Reasoning is that they will control large amounts of the game and not have that potent attack to score early on, hopefully not leaking anything in the process.

Blackburn are another side that interests me. They don't give much away, fight tooth and nail 'Big Sam style.Which could lead to tight, boring games, such as was the case at Birmingham Yesterday. Birmingham aren't as good as last years league position suggests, in my opinion. But with an organised defence and an inspired Foster they might be able to hold off teams till the break, while not offering much at the other end.


West ham against Bolton was also 0-0 at HT. However while I wouldn't of put West Ham in the 0-0- Category; maybe at Upton Park, where they are controlling lower quality teams, it could be a possibility as they are not confident in front of goal. Bolton, who have changed under their style, (slightly lol) under new management are still solid and lack some creativity, and really suit the 0-0 HT every well. Bolton are off too a good start and do like their setup but that's beside the point.

Everton and Wolves also interested me. Wolves remind me of Blackburn, fight tooth and nail etc: with no real creativity, creating maybe 3/4 chances a game. They are off to a good start as well, which I think is a bit misleading. Everton, while one of the better teams, no doubt, became the perennial 1-0 winners team a couple of seasons ago, and that won't change under Moyes.