Low Risk : High Reward

Just had a nibble on a few players @ 1,000/1 ( or so ) at the Barclays to come from way back and sneak it.

While it's a relatively tough course, I feel there's a -9/-10 out there for an early starter. Added to this, late starters struggle to shoot anything under par due to the dry greens. So i've gone a for four players ranging from -4 to -1, -1 is almost definitely too far back, almost.


So Pick one,

1. Luke Donald @ 1,000/1 0.2 Pts
2. Charley Hoffman @ 1,000/1  0.2 pts
3.  Webb Simpson @ 750/1 0.4 pts
4.  Camillio Villegas @ 1,000/1 0.2 pts

Total Staked  1pt

Wyndham Champ breakdown

Jimmy Walker: 1pt E/W LOSE

Missed Cut. Had two double bogeys and a triple bogey,  Still finished -1 and might keep an eye on him, very poor driving accuracy.

Richard S Johnson: 1pt E/W LOSE

 In the hunt all week. Putted great, until Sunday, sigh. Nothing dropped, very unlucky. Missed a couple of puts inside 3 feet as well, which is unacceptable.

Micheal Sim: 1pt win @ 50/1 LOSE (Had E/W not incl. in log.)

Very streaky and Very inconstant performance Thursday through Saturday. Played beautifully on Sunday to make into a tie for 2nd.  Actually never got the odds quoted matched on betfair, so ended up backing him E/W on PP. ( 1pt E/W) I won't add it too the log. Recovered my bet placings for the event anyway.

Micheal Leitzig:. .5 pt e/w LOSE.

Again, he had a good Sunday and was only a few shots back.  3 good picks, unlucky not to get something more.


Bank Breakdown.

Total Staked: 34.6 pts
Total Returned  30 pts
Total loss -4.6 pts.

Half Time: Correct score 0-0 : Theory

One thing I noted during the World Cup was the vast amount of games being 0-0 at HT. Spain notoriously went 3/4 games 0-0 HT. ( and then went on to win 1-0 usually ) So does this translate to the premiership?

Judging on Yesterdays action ( Saturday 21/08/2010) it may well do. But, I'm sure it would be more of a prominent occurrence in other leagues. 3 of the 7 games in the EPL were 0-0 at HT. 3/7 not a bad return, right? Not really. Ok, but, that includes Arsenal against Blackpool and Chelsea v Wigan. Neither Wigan nor Blackpool are particularly effective at holding teams, so if you would rule them out then 3 out of the 5 games were 0-0 at HT.  Everton were only 1-0 up against Wolves too. 

If we look at some of the teams involved we might be able to find a pattern. West Brom were 0-0 with Sunderland at the break. West Brom are a decent side as we know, so maybe when they are at home against non top-6 side opposition (who have the ability to cut them open and control a higher amount of possession ) it could lead to a 0-0 ht results. Reasoning is that they will control large amounts of the game and not have that potent attack to score early on, hopefully not leaking anything in the process.

Blackburn are another side that interests me. They don't give much away, fight tooth and nail 'Big Sam style.Which could lead to tight, boring games, such as was the case at Birmingham Yesterday. Birmingham aren't as good as last years league position suggests, in my opinion. But with an organised defence and an inspired Foster they might be able to hold off teams till the break, while not offering much at the other end.


West ham against Bolton was also 0-0 at HT. However while I wouldn't of put West Ham in the 0-0- Category; maybe at Upton Park, where they are controlling lower quality teams, it could be a possibility as they are not confident in front of goal. Bolton, who have changed under their style, (slightly lol) under new management are still solid and lack some creativity, and really suit the 0-0 HT every well. Bolton are off too a good start and do like their setup but that's beside the point.

Everton and Wolves also interested me. Wolves remind me of Blackburn, fight tooth and nail etc: with no real creativity, creating maybe 3/4 chances a game. They are off to a good start as well, which I think is a bit misleading. Everton, while one of the better teams, no doubt, became the perennial 1-0 winners team a couple of seasons ago, and that won't change under Moyes. 

Darren Bent First Scorer

2 Pts Darren bent 1st goalscorer @ 9/2 - West Brom v Sunderland.

As I mentioned in a previous Blog, Darren Bent starts games quickly. Last season he was 1st goal scorer in at least 13 Premier League games. ( I think it's more like 15/16 times!!! stopped checking after April)

I didn't back him last week, as he was doubtful to play. Guess what happened? argh.
I think it's more a trait with Sunderland rather than Darren Bent to be honest, they get out of the traps flying and then get complacent in the second half. Anyways, if he doesn't get on the end of something (Bent) he might get a penalty. Quite alot of his goals were penalties last season too.


Total Staked: 2pts

Wyndham Championship Preview

What do you do when you fall off the horse?

So, we're going to try to get back on track at this low profile event on the PGA tour.  Some key points:

• Estimated winning score -15 to -18.
• Par 70, only two par 5's.
• Shot course, with only three long par 4's.
• Ranked 24th out of 31 in terms of difficulty for 2009. ( 1 Being uber hard)
•  Poor quality field with the exception of Kim, Glover, Ryan Moore, Fred Couples. ( all potential Ryder cup players)

A player I fancied at Turning Stone a couple of weeks back before he pulled out is Jimmy Walker.  He came 3rd recently at the Greenbrier and is available at 200/1 on Betfair.  Driving accuracy is a mere 50% but striking it well enough to do the business around here. Poor course form a negative. I feel he's one who's gone under the radar this week and could have a big chance come Sunday.

Interesting to note that Micheal Sim is 50/1. Which seems very good value if you look at his stats!! But the sats must be lying as he 4 MC's from his last 6 played?  Take alook at these bad-ass stats lol. Nationwide stats from 2009.

But I do like him this week, he has shown great potential with, for example, a t-3rd at Turning Stone, and his nationwide tour form this time last year was teriffic.

Another one who takes my eye is Richard S Johnson. I would usually have a player of this calibre pinned for no more wins for a couple of years after he wins one event! But he has performed solidly at the very least since his win in Sweden in July. So, to break that down a little, his last three outings were 1st, T21st and T8th. The last two being on easier type courses, but unfortunately his best round was only a 66. To be honest, I could see him putting together four solid rounds (66-69) but also something along the lines of  69-63-66-70 type performance. ( would you give me 1,000,000/1 on that? xD ) Just a thought.

Chris Di Marco and Davis Love three I ( In Cinema's soon ), are funny one's this week. Two Wonderful players who should suit this course and are at decent prices! But i'm opting against them, Love may suffer from fatigue after the PGA and Di Marco I just feel could start to slowly and leave him self too much to do. Not the most comprehensive of dismissals.

Finally, Micheal Leitzig has me thinking. He has a t9th here from a couple years back and some solid form this summer to go on. Has he got the ability to real low? His history wouldn't suggest it but having posted a -10 and a -12 inside the last month, he might just be tempting it. He's fancied by a few this week too it seems.

Selections:

1. Jimmy Walker: 1pt E/W  @ 125/1 SkyBet + 0.6 win @ 190/1 Betfair
2. Richard S Johnson: 1pt E/W @ 50/1 Sportingbet + 0.6 win @ 64/1Betfair
3. Micheal Sim: 1pt win @ 50/1 Betfair
4. Micheal Leitzig:. .5 pt e/w  @ 100/1 Sportingbet + 0.4 win @ 120/1 Betfair

 Total Staked @ Wyndham: 9.6 pts

Profit after Man united game: + 7.0 pts

Liability: - 2.6 pts

Unitedddddddddddd

I strongly fancy the scum tonight.

John O Shea (JOS) is back starting for united, and i just have a feeling he could knick the first goal from a set-piece. Hasn't a bad record of goals from when he was playing regulalrly and he impressed in some recent friendlies. Also a small chance he could get on the end of something from advancing from right back.

JOS 1st goalscorer @ 47/1 1pt.

Having looked at various bets for united at -1, -2 etc, I stumbled accross United to score in both halves @ 4/5. Usuually slow starters United are hungry from the off this time, it appears. Newcastle's 451 doesnt consist of an out and out Defensive mid, and  their midfield being 100% discplined, which is what will be asked off by Houghton.

Man United, to score in both halves @ 4/5

Weekly Wrap up.

No good this week, very exiciting finale and congrats to all Kaymer backers.

Darren Bent scored first. Frank Lampoard and Drogba, scored and played well in the prem which is key to note. West ham and Wigan were dyer, as were Man city.



Total Staked: 9.2 pts
Total Returned: 0 pts
Total profit:6.6 pts

All my picks are goneeeeeeee

The astonishing missed cut mark of +1 means all my picks have failed. Miserbaly. Well actually, just missed the cut by 1/2 shots with the exception of Ishikawa who shot a total of +6.

Halfway stage bets: 

D.A Points @400/1 .6 points win

Darren Clarke @ 190/1 .6 points win

KJ Choi @ 400/1 .4 points win

Shaun Micheel @ 370/1 .6 points win.

Logic behind these, is the course is playing easy at the moment, i'm hoping one of these guys can shoot the lights out and it might put me in a position to lay-off or take the jackpot. The reason I picked these group of players is they are well rested and they have shown an ability to shoot low this season with the exception of Clarke, possibly?

Bank to be updated after tourney.

Super 6: Where it's at

SkyBets FREE Super 6 is a great chance to hit the jackpot.

Logic: 

• Play every week
• Predict low obvious scores
• Goal: Hit the jackpot once in a season.

It's quite a simple game, guess the correct score of all 6 premier league games at 3pm on Saturdays. Firstly, it's nigh-on impossible to predict all six scores correct.  But, taking last season for example, there's always one week things can go right and predictable, and if you get lucky then great you could win the 100k. lovely. More, likely however that you can get 3/4 results right one week and take a share of the 5k jackpot. This is possible to do at least once in season.So, just stick at it, it takes less then two minutes to do.

Free to enter, but you will need a SKYBET account

Regards,
SBTT

Take your pick!!

Week 2: PGA Championship.

It looks like a links but it's not a links is the only bit of informtation going around about Whistling Straits this week. Thanks for that guys. So what is it?

• Well, it has four par fives, of which only 1 is reachable to the mere mortal in 2 shots. But they will try anyway lol. 

• The greens are fast but i'd imagine very difficult when it dries out in the afternoon.

• Weather is expected to be good, and not so windy over Thursday and Friday so no draw advantage.  scattered thunderstorms on Friday possible.

Just when you least expect, El Nino strikes.

 Sergio Garcia 1pt E/W @ 80/1 Skybet 1,2,3,4,5,6 places

Who's stupid enough to pick El Nino this week? Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
Reasoning: He's not played that badly the past few weeks, driving it well, also has good par 5 birdie or better stats. Cons, too many to mention, but he rarely plays appalingly and it may just take one moment to spark him into life.  Here's hoping he doesn't have one eye on his vacation already. Not really sure why he played at the Greenbrier either.

Ryo Ishikawa 1 pt E/W @ 175/1 Stan James @ 6 places
Plays way beyond his years, which should suits the majors. Closed well last week at firsetone, intelligent player. Outside chance though.

 Rory Sabatini .5 pts E/W @ 175/1 Skybet @ 6 places.
Drove it well last week, great GIR last week too. If he can maintain his game going into this week, could be an interesting pick.

Jerry Kelly 1 pt E/W @ 250/1 @ 6 places Paddypower
Had to, after last week. He played the par 5's well last week which could be key here.

Jerry Kelly brings home the Moulah!!

Well, some Moulah, anyway.

selection 1: James Nitties @ 90/1 Bet365 - 1pt E/W
Outcome: BET LOST.  Made the cut, very incosistant performance. Notes: Good driving, Poor irons, average putting.
 
James missed the cut last week, so how can I justify picking him? 
Well, he Shot a very impressive second round 63 to make up for a dismal first round which should provide him with enough confidence going into this week. He has shown moderate form the past few weeks and Finished inside the top 20 here last year. Let's hope he carries on his recent form and that MC last week has helped with the chunky price.

Selection 2: Jerry kelly @ 150/1 Bet365 - 1pt E/W
Outcome: BET PLACE/DEAD HEAT @ 60% of stake. Returned 23 Pts. Shot -8 on Sunday, and even had two bogeys in the round. Notes: Great driving, good irons, average putting.

The price for Jerry this week is staggering. He's one of the best players in the field, without question. 

The reason behind the high price is he has 4 MC's in a row coming into this event. Out of form right? Yes, and no. He shot average rounds in all the events except for the Brittish open where he played poorly, but this isn't the Brittish open now is it? so that form can be excused. The law of averages would say he's going to make the cut this week and i've a sneaky feeling he might do a lot more, expecting at least one low round from Jerry this week.

Selection 3: Brian Davis @ 125/1 Stan James - 1pt E/W
Outcome: BET LOSE: Made the cut and was brialliantly poised after every round to attack, but attack he ddin't. T22nd, just couldn't get the putter going. Notes: Great Driving, ok Irons, and poor putting performance.

The nearly man of the year. The forgotten man of the year. Not anymore.

Brian will be remembered this year for his sportsmanship when handing victory to Jim Furyk after he interefered with his own ball by accident, at the Verizon Heritage (Oh yeah, now i remember him lol.) He has showed good form in spits and spats this year and not alot recently, but the Two second place finishes this year shows he can get it going. He's never won on the PGA tour and he will have as good a chance as any in this low key event with little media attention.


Total Staked: 6 pts. + 1.2 @ WGC = 7.2 pts
Total Returned  23 pts
Total profit: 15.8 Pts

Premier League 2010/2011

Some Idea's I have going for the New Premier League season 2010/2011.

1. Darren bent First Goal-Scorer in every league game. 
2. Torres First Scorer every second league game
3. Spurs opponents DNB after each champions league tie, e.g. 2 games in a week.*
4. Man City to draw every game.**

* Depending on how important and how much effort is put into the midweek game.
** Depending on moderate form of opponents and just may not work in general.

Just penning my thoughts. For Now. Biatch.

Nibble at Akron

Week 1: WGC @ Akron

My main focus is on the Turning stone event this week, just had a quick nibble at huge prices on a couple of players not completely out of form.


Oliie Fisher @ 400/1 0.8 Pts

Ollies last decent finish was 11th in the BMW International Open in late june, I don't know the reason why he missed the following 3 events, presuming it's an injury. His last 3 rounds were 74+ or higher, hence the price.
So, he's due a good round, and I hope a good all round performance at Akron. He's just said on twitter, he feels his game is coming around, which is good.

Gregory Bourdy @ 570/1 0.4 pts. 

Came 6th in France in early July, so the price isn't fair and just imo, still it would be quite sometime if he pulled off the win.  Solid stats all round this year hence the bet.

I should have a detailed blog for the USPGA next week.


Total staked: 1.2 pts.

Week 1: Turning Stone Resort Selections

There are Two events on the PGA tour this week, one for the good players, and one for the not so good players. Let's have a stab at the not so good players then.

Selection 1: James Nitties @ 90/1 Bet365 - 1pt E/W

James missed the cut last week, so how can I justify picking him? 

Well, he Shot a very impressive second round 63 to make up for a dismal first round which should provide him with enough confidence going into this week. He has shown moderate form the past few weeks and Finished inside the top 20 here last year. Let's hope he carries on his recent form and that MC last week has helped with the chunky price.

Selection 2: Jerry kelly @ 150/1 Bet365 - 1pt E/W

The price for Jerry this week is staggering. He's one of the best players in the field, without question. 

The reason behind the high price is he has 4 MC's in a row coming into this event. Out of form right? Yes, and no. He shot average rounds in all the events except for the Brittish open where he played poorly, but this isn't the Brittish open now is it? so that form can be excused. The law of averages would say he's going to make the cut this week and i've a sneaky feeling he might do a lot more, expecting at least one low round from Jerry this week.

Selection 3: Brian Davis @ 125/1 Stan James - 1pt E/W

The nearly man of the year. The forgotten man of the year. Not anymore.

Brian will be remembered this year for his sportsmanship when handing victory to Jim Furyk after he interefered with his own ball by accident, at the Verizon Heritage (Oh yeah, now i remember him lol.) He has showed good form in spits and spats this year and not alot recently, but the Two second place finishes this year shows he can get it going. He's never won on the PGA tour and he will have as good a chance as any in this low key event with little media attention.


Total Staked: 6 pts.