I'm back from a small hiatus and no better event to return for than the Ryder Cup. One of the best spectacles in Golf and also a good money making opportunity in my opinion. Unlike a normal event I'll be doing with much shorter odds this week.
Martin Kaymer Top 4 combined points scorer: @ 3/1 : 5 pts : Betfair
Kaymer as we know has the best form of any player in the field, winning the last major and on his last time out, I expect Kaymer to play with Donald and Westwood on day 1. Hopefully, with Donald in the foursomes and Westwood in the fourballs, an absolutely fantastic chance to get 2 points on the board. As long as he wins one point on day 1 ( of which he is widely expected to play both sessions) he'll feature at least once more on Saturday and in the singles. I would have pinned Martin and Mcilroy as the two who could play all 5 games. You could maybe throw G-Mac into the mix too, if him and Mcilroy can hit it off and win both their games on Friday. The likes of Westowood, Harrington and Donald are expected to play once over the opening day.
As for the US, the stricker/Woods combination was frightening in the Presidents Cup just last year. They brought home maximum points for their team, playing together in every doubles match. Based on their practice sessions in Wales, they may well split up for this event. ( Certainly if they lose their first match, and Tiger isn't near his best) So, I see stricker and possibly Furyk, who could his playing partner, as the biggest threats to the top combined points scorer.
I see Kaymer as the best Chance of getting 3-5 points at Celtic Manor, and really like his potential pairings on Friday.
Another Market I like, is the Total halved match points to be 6 points or over. @ 7/5 : 5pts : Betfair
This would have won in 3 of the last 4 ryder cups. Surprisingly, the singles matches don't have a high turnover for draws, so I have a hunch more than anything else that this year will be an exception and we could see 3/4/5 draws on Sunday. I'm expecting, or rather hoping, for 4 draws on Friday and Saturday and another 4 draws on Sunday, or something in that region. The main fear would be if Europe do run away with it, and I need a couple of halves from the last 6-8 groups on Sunday, the bet could be up shit creek without a paddle, so to speak.
Viking Classic: Interest bet:
I like the look of Allen here, plays mainly on the senior tour these days, wheres he's 4th on the par 5 Birdie or better list. Also a course where the winning marging should be between -12 and -16 so not overly easy, which should suit.
Michael Allen : Top 10 Finnish 2 pts @16/1
Micheal Allen : WIN: 1pts @400/1
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Update: The Luke Donald saga
So it was a couple of weeks back now when I backed Luke Donald after round 3 at 1,000/1. As predicted he got off to a flyer,. Watching him on the exchanges he went from 1,000 right into 20/1. He had only reached hole 10! was 2 shots off the lead! bogey free, birdie crazy, I really thought he could have the perfect round, due to his very consistent game and great putting ability. Foolish? or what. I was toying with the idea of trading out for e250 profit if he failed to win and 400 if he did. A true win win situation. But alas, I didn't, and I watched him drop shot after shot and my payday went up in smoke. -11 got into a playoff in the end.
People are doing very risky business laying top golfers at 1,000/1 when they still have half a chance of winning, usually after round 2. The leaders who go off late almost always get brought back to the pack. A combination of the late tee-time pressure, the greens drying out, and all the waiting around gets to the players. Even last week, Miguel Angel Jimenez nearly botched up at Crane-Sur-Siere with a 5 shot lead, on the final day going into the turn. He just didn't know how too play the 2 par 5s on the back nine. Jason Day the past couple of weeks, done everyhting text book but someone came and grabbed the title from him.
Bank Breakdown after previuos midweek qualifiers
Bank Breakdown.
Total Staked: 39.6 pts
Total Returned 37 pts
Total loss -2.6 pts.
People are doing very risky business laying top golfers at 1,000/1 when they still have half a chance of winning, usually after round 2. The leaders who go off late almost always get brought back to the pack. A combination of the late tee-time pressure, the greens drying out, and all the waiting around gets to the players. Even last week, Miguel Angel Jimenez nearly botched up at Crane-Sur-Siere with a 5 shot lead, on the final day going into the turn. He just didn't know how too play the 2 par 5s on the back nine. Jason Day the past couple of weeks, done everyhting text book but someone came and grabbed the title from him.
Bank Breakdown after previuos midweek qualifiers
Bank Breakdown.
Total Staked: 39.6 pts
Total Returned 37 pts
Total loss -2.6 pts.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Euro 2012 weekend qualifiers
Armenia V Ireland: 0-0 Correct Half time score - 3 pts
Ive been eyeing 0-0 HT scores for a while now, Little creativity plus high discipline and effort should mean few chances in the 1st half. Although Ireland have scored some early goals in the past, If Armenia can whether a minor storm, mainly from set-pieces im forecasting, we should see one el'of a boring game.
Deutsche Bank Bet
Jimmy Walker @ 600/1 1pt
Similar thought process as last week ( where I completely blew a great opportunity, when Donald near;y hit the lead from 1,000/1, more on at to come ) The biggest weakness in Walkers game is his driving, and this should be the one course in the playoffs he will get away with it. Longshot, but he's not playing too badly at all.
Ive been eyeing 0-0 HT scores for a while now, Little creativity plus high discipline and effort should mean few chances in the 1st half. Although Ireland have scored some early goals in the past, If Armenia can whether a minor storm, mainly from set-pieces im forecasting, we should see one el'of a boring game.
Deutsche Bank Bet
Jimmy Walker @ 600/1 1pt
Similar thought process as last week ( where I completely blew a great opportunity, when Donald near;y hit the lead from 1,000/1, more on at to come ) The biggest weakness in Walkers game is his driving, and this should be the one course in the playoffs he will get away with it. Longshot, but he's not playing too badly at all.
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